作者君在作品相关中其实已经解释过这个问题。
不过仍然有人质疑——“你说得太含糊了”,“火星轨道的变化比你想象要大得多!”
那好吧,既然作者君的简单解释不够有力,那咱们就看看严肃的东西,反正这本书写到现在,嚷嚷着本书bug一大堆,用初高中物理在书中挑刺的人也不少。
以下是文章内容:
long-termiionsandstabilityofplaaryorbitsinoursolarsystem
abstract
wepresenttheresultsofverylong-termnumeritegrationsofplaaryorbitalmotionsover109-yrtime-spansincludingallnineplas.aquispeofournumericaldatashowsthattheplaarymotion,atleastinoursimpledynamicalmodel,seemstobequitestableevehisverylongtime-span.acloserlookatthelowest-frequencyoscillationsusingalow-passfiltershowsusthepotentiallydiffusivecharacterofterrestrialplaarymotion,especiallythatofmercury.thebehaviouroftheetriercuryinouriionsisqualitativelysimilartotheresultsfromjacqueslaskar'ssecularperturbationtheory(e.g.emax~0.35yr).however,therearenoapparentsecularincreasesofetricityorinationinanyorbitalelementsoftheplas,whichmayberevealedbystillloermnumeritegrations.wehavealsoperformedacoupleoftrialiionsincludingmotionsoftheouterfiveplasoverthedurationof±5x1010yr.theresultindicatesthatthethreemajorresoheune–plutosystemhavebeenmaintainedoverthe1011-yrtime-span.
1introdu
1.1definitionoftheproblem
thequestionofthestabilityofoursolarsystemhasbeeedoverseveralhundredyears,siheeraofon.theproblemhasattractedmanyfamousmathematisovertheyearsandhasplayedatralroleinthedevelopmentofnon-lineardynamidchaostheory.however,wedohaveadefiniteahequestionofwhetheroursolarsystemisstableornot.thisispartlyaresultofthefactthatthedefinitionoftheterm‘stability’isvaguewhenitisusediiontotheproblemofplaarymotioninthesolarsystem.actuallyitisogiveaclear,rigorousandphysicallymeaningfuldefinitionofthestabilityofoursolarsystem.
amongmanydefinitionsofstability,heretthehilldefinition(gladman1993):actuallythisisnotadefinitionofstability,butofinstability.wedefineasystemasbeingunstablewhenacloseenteroccurssomewhereiem,startingfromacertaininitialfiguration(chambers,wetherillitotanikawa1999).asystemisdefinedasexperiengacloseenterwhentwobodiesapproaeahinahelargerhillradius.otherwisethesystemisdefinedasbeingstable.henceforwardwestatethatourplaarysystemisdynamicallystableifnocloseenterhappensduringtheageofoursolarsystem,about±5gyr.ially,thisdefinitionmaybereplacedbyoneinwhioccurrenceofanyorbitalcrossiweeherofapairofplaakesplace.thisisbecauseweknowfromexperieanorbitalcrossingisverylikelytolea
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